Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 20.896093 22.821857 24.965370 27.553196 30.627686 34.209987 38.771491
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 18.008792 20.511115 23.512828 27.467913 32.689841 39.590189 49.877228
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 16.166855 18.986840 22.565645 27.622738 34.934326 45.812045 64.992015
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 14.858354 17.870358 21.867649 27.855108 37.238065 52.890734 86.081001
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 13.830013 16.950325 21.243628 27.997507 39.366758 60.544065 115.642256
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 12.875606 16.002562 20.423365 27.647503 40.537245 66.980718 151.679097
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.179861 15.333339 19.905598 27.654019 42.304952 75.632731 214.578236
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.529839 14.662737 19.297547 27.389022 43.461283 83.629968 308.299038
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.952786 14.047262 18.703625 27.043440 44.351190 91.650236 468.180610
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.466485 13.527483 18.205868 26.788103 45.367907 101.029496 827.115799
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.047795 13.078571 17.778035 26.595164 46.481087 111.998903 2051.857831
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.587574 12.536555 17.152107 25.940776 46.316202 118.158332 7151.669907
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.469842 12.519779 17.403209 27.049470 51.053735 153.509961 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.139439 12.148330 17.020487 26.824083 52.141159 172.954899 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.885224 11.883104 16.800247 26.909001 54.196220 204.915577 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.667266 11.663117 16.641092 27.102532 56.697375 251.186082 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.455784 11.441555 16.461280 27.225568 59.060980 311.491328 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.197570 11.130410 16.097473 26.885967 59.728830 358.551348 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.002079 10.913676 15.892223 26.889666 61.702285 452.836761 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.787281 10.655050 15.592806 26.635756 62.632193 548.195375 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.576756 10.394959 15.275659 26.305494 63.178075 658.472240 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.389203 10.166241 15.005064 26.061543 64.041637 831.320372 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.219478 9.961188 14.768226 25.877230 65.140192 1117.100619 NaN